Suggestions from the Turkish Informatics Foundation to Convert Brain Drain into Brain Power

The Turkish Informatics Foundation (TBV) has shared its "Turkish Academic Diaspora Report: From Brain Drain to Brain Power," aimed at conducting a detailed examination of the scientific environment for Turks both in Turkey and around the world, and proposing solutions. The report highlights a significant increase in the likelihood of researchers leaving Turkey since 2015, after a period of stagnation starting in the 2000s. It outlines policies necessary to manage brain drain and transform it into brain power.

The TBV scrutinized Turkish researchers globally to assess Turkey's position in terms of productivity on the international stage and offered policy recommendations. The report addresses whether brain drain is increasing in Turkey, its impact on researchers' academic performance, and potential benefits of brain drain for Turkey.

Turkey Lags Behind Developed Countries in Productivity Prof. Dr. Ufuk Akçiğit from the University of Chicago presented the report, emphasizing that long-term growth in countries is primarily determined by increases in economic productivity. He pointed out that the issue of productivity, often overlooked in Turkey's agenda, has been a longstanding problem and should be at the heart of economic discussions. Productivity refers to a country's ability to generate more added value with its capital and labor. Turkey is stuck in the middle-income trap due to its significant lag in productivity compared to developed countries. Akçiğit hopes that the report, supported by the TBV, will contribute to policy discussions, deepen data-driven dialogues in the country, and guide other researchers.

Brain Drain Can Create Brain Power with Correct Policies TBV President Faruk Eczacıbaşı evaluated the report, noting the rapid developments brought by artificial intelligence and expansions in communication and network technologies are quickly wearing out conventional infrastructures and concepts. As unregulated gray areas increase, there's a growing need for new models and policies. A future viewed through a different lens could hold numerous opportunities. TBV aims to explore new models that can be developed in every field. The academic world is perhaps one of the most crucial areas for the application of new models. A rapidly deteriorating system requires a new model for revival. Akçiğit's research beautifully articulates the long-term dangers of academia becoming insular. Contrary to being perceived as a significant threat, brain drain, with the right long-term policies, could offer opportunities for creating future brain power.

These insights from TBV underscore the critical need for strategic policy formulation and implementation to harness the potential of Turkish scholars and researchers worldwide, turning the challenge of brain drain into an opportunity for developing a robust knowledge-based economy in Turkey.

The report highlights the following findings:

• Compared to the US, Turkey's per capita national income has been around 20% since the early 1960s. By the 2020s, countries that were behind Turkey in 1960, such as Singapore, South Korea, Lithuania, Poland, Chile, and China, have surpassed Turkey. Singapore has even surpassed the US, and South Korea has reached 50% of the US's level. All these countries achieved this growth by investing in productivity alongside capital increase. Without an increase in productivity, Turkey cannot escape the middle-income trap.
• The number of articles and patents per capita in countries is directly proportional to their per capita national incomes, indicating a close link between economic development and the outcomes of basic and applied research. Turkey significantly lags behind OECD countries in both research output and national income.
• Developing human capital to enhance productivity is challenging. Achieving this requires providing equal opportunities from childhood and proper education for identified talents. There's an inverse relationship between income inequality and the number of R&D researchers per capita. Turkey ranks low among OECD countries in terms of income equality and researcher ratios. Additionally, while Turkey is one of the lowest in OECD countries in terms of public spending on primary, secondary, and high school education relative to national income, it ranks high in terms of private spending on education. This indicates that children from wealthy families receive better education, while others face resource shortages, making it difficult to educate talented individuals from poorer backgrounds.
• OECD data shows Turkey ranks low in scientific publications per capita but high in terms of public spending on higher education as a percentage of national income. Significant resources are allocated to higher education in Turkey; however, these resources are not used efficiently, leading to poor scientific output. Similarly, Turkey lags in R&D spending as a percentage of GDP, but ranks high in terms of public support for private sector R&D. Despite the incentives provided, the desired positive outcomes are not achieved.
• An examination of thesis topics by master's and doctoral students in the US shows a rapid growth in technical fields like computer engineering and electrical engineering since the 1980s. In contrast, these fields lag behind others such as business, agriculture, history, psychology, and religion in Turkey. One of the fundamental conditions for Turkey to catch up with high-income countries is to educate researchers who can produce the technologies of tomorrow. Not focusing on these rapidly spreading technologies represents a missed opportunity for Turkey.
• Looking at Turkey from the 1970s to 2015, there was a strong increase in the number of researchers per capita. After 2015, this trend reversed, leading to a decrease, which raises questions about a growing trend in brain drain. Indeed, the likelihood of researchers leaving Turkey has significantly increased after 2015, following a stagnant or slightly declining trend since the 2000s.
• When researchers are divided into five productivity groups based on the average number of articles they produce each year, a paradoxical picture emerges regarding the likelihood of researchers in Turkey moving abroad and those abroad returning to Turkey. As productivity increases from the lowest to the highest group, the likelihood of researchers in Turkey moving abroad increases. Conversely, the likelihood of researchers abroad returning to Turkey increases as productivity decreases from the highest to the lowest group. Thus, Turkey loses its most productive researchers to brain drain and gains back, on average, less productive researchers from abroad.
• Using our micro-dataset of researchers and modern econometric techniques, we found significant findings regarding the effects of brain drain on researchers leaving Turkey, those staying in Turkey, and those returning from abroad:
  • Leavers: Researchers moving abroad are among the most productive in Turkey. The effects of moving abroad are twofold: directly increasing the researcher's academic productivity and indirectly benefiting the Turkish scientific ecosystem through knowledge dissemination via co-authors continuing their careers in Turkey.
  • Stayers: Turkey has the opportunity to benefit from human capital abroad. Our findings suggest that if a researcher maintains contact with a co-author who has moved abroad, their productivity increases. Thus, brain drain has benefits not only for the researchers moving abroad but also for the co-authors left behind. However, the dissemination of knowledge from abroad to Turkey depends on the strength of connections between researchers in Turkey and those abroad. Researchers who lose contact with their co-authors moving abroad do not experience a productivity boost.
  • Returnees: Researchers returning to Turkey from abroad are, on average, less productive than those staying abroad. These researchers show a decline in academic publications before returning. After returning, they tend to publish in lower-quality but higher-quantity journals.
• The health sector is Turkey's largest research area. Thus, losing momentum in this field will have a significant impact on Turkey's scientific ecosystem. When main disciplines in the health sector are individually examined, many fields that grew both globally and in Turkey between 2010-2015, such as cardiology, neurology, and pulmonary diseases, have continued to grow globally but shrunk in Turkey between 2015-2020.

• The healthcare sector is Turkey's largest research area. Thus, any loss of momentum in this area will significantly impact Turkey's scientific ecosystem. When examining the main disciplines within the healthcare field individually, it was found that many areas, such as cardiology, neurology, and pulmonary diseases, continued to grow worldwide between 2015 and 2020, while they have shrunk in Turkey.
• The average global rankings of Turkish universities in every field, including medicine, computer engineering, and mathematics, have been calculated, and it has been observed that Turkish universities have regressed in almost all departments since the early 2000s. The medical field, in particular, regressed until the early 2010s, recovered slightly until 2015, but then rapidly declined again.
• The annual average ratio of female researchers among active Turkish researchers between 1980-2020 is 37%, while it is much lower, at 28%, among Turkish researchers abroad. This suggests that there are barriers to women's mobility in society. Additionally, it has been observed that women publish fewer articles than their male counterparts. These findings indicate discrimination against women in society and research institutions.
• If Turkey wants to escape the middle-income trap and join the high-income countries, it must succeed in increasing its productivity. Productivity increase is possible through the arduous enhancement of basic sciences and applied research, culminating in high technology. Unfortunately, the current state of research in Turkey does not paint a promising picture. Our report offers policy recommendations in five areas to enable research that can increase productivity.

Policy Recommendations

1. Strengthening Technical Human Capital: a. The effects of income inequality in primary, secondary, and high school education should be reduced, and equal opportunities should be created. b. All forms of discrimination in education and science must be eliminated. c. An environment conducive to independent thought for researchers should be provided in universities. d. The productivity of universities should be reviewed, research resources (funds, course loads, etc.) improved, and programs updated to meet the needs of today's world. e. The focus should be on the quality rather than quantity of research to enhance the quality of research in universities.

2. Addressing Brain Drain and International Human Capital: a. The reasons for leaving should be identified; a conducive environment should be created for these researchers to stay, to prevent increasing brain drain rates. b. The connection between those who leave and researchers in Turkey should be strengthened through project partnerships and research funds to sustain their positive impacts. c. Turkey-origin researchers who have spent their entire career abroad should be encouraged to contribute to Turkey's research environment through laboratory supports, data collaborations, research funds, and data-based policy studies. d. Those remaining should be encouraged to connect with Turkey-origin researchers abroad through research and conference funds or collaboration projects.

3. Making R&D Supports More Effective: a. Impact analyses of incentives should be conducted, inefficient support programs should be closed, and the resources reallocated to more productive programs. b. Access to R&D incentives and other investment resources should be ensured for the most deserving companies, especially the fast-growing ones, based on performance. c. Incentives should be given through universities, the central institutions of research and technology. d. The focus of incentives should be on quality rather than quantity.

4. Increasing Women's Positions in Scientific Research: a. Strict anti-discrimination policies should be implemented within research institutions. b. Scholarships for women for overseas higher education should be increased. c. Participation of women researchers in Turkey in congresses and conferences should be encouraged, platforms for them to present their research should be created, and special research funds for women should be provided. d. Committees aiming to study and educate society on the pressures and discrimination faced by women should be established.

5. Better Management of These Policies: a. Meetings with broad representation of doctoral students and researchers should be organized to measure the effects of implemented policies and closely monitor the challenges faced by both today's and tomorrow's researchers. b. An autonomous research institute comprising competent researchers should be established, and this institute should work closely with the public sector, universities, and the private sector in designing, measuring, and developing policies. c. Inter-ministerial coordination should be increased. d. Human capital capable of handling data sharing and processing tasks among ministries and institutions should be trained. e. An immediate reconciliation with data is necessary, and policy discussions should be data-based. f. Implemented policies should always be evaluated through impact analyses.